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Ontario can control COVID-19 with continued health measures: science table

Experts advising the Ontario government say continued public health measures can control COVID-19's spread
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(File)

TORONTO — A group of science experts advising the Ontario government says the province can control the spread of COVID-19 if public health measures stay in place.

New modelling from the Ontario science table was released today, hours before Premier Doug Ford is set to unveil his plan for lifting public health restrictions.

The experts say a combination of vaccination and public health measures has led to declining case counts and stable hospitalizations and ICU admissions.

But as cold weather approaches, driving more activities indoors where the risk of transmission is higher, the science table says continuing some public health measures is necessary to maintain control of the pandemic.

Modelling shows that if there is no change in policy or people's behaviours, cases will continue to decline, while some increase in social contacts will keep cases stable. A "substantial" increase in contacts could lead to more than 600 daily cases by the end of November.

All of those scenarios assume public health measures such as masking, a proof-of-vaccination system, symptom screening and good ventilation and filtration continue.

A senior government source says Ford's announcement today will include lifting capacity restrictions on bars, restaurants and gyms.

Ford has said the province's plan to move beyond current pandemic restrictions will provide a long-term vision, and will involve applying any new restrictions, if needed, in tailored and localized ways, with the aim of avoiding further lockdowns.

The province paused plans in mid-August to exit Step 3 of its reopening framework as fourth-wave cases were rising. 

Now, the seven-day average of daily COVID-19 cases is stable, nearly 88 per cent of eligible Ontarians have received at least one dose of a vaccine and proof of vaccination is required to access several venues, including restaurants, cinemas and event spaces.

Ontario reported 492 new cases of COVID-19 on Friday, and 11 more deaths. 

Health Minister Christine Elliott said 325 of those cases are in people not fully vaccinated or whose vaccination status is unknown. 

There are 149 people in intensive care units due to COVID-19 –128 of them aren't fully vaccinated or have an unknown vaccination status.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 22, 2021.

Allison Jones, The Canadian Press


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