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Ontario COVID-19 modelling examines long-term effects of virus

Ontario’s daily case counts have so far remained under 1,000 during the fourth wave, and the graph of Ontario’s seven-day average roughly shows a plateau since the beginning of September.
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A person wears a mask to protect them from the COVID-19 virus while walking by a sign about the ongoing pandemic in Kingston, Ontario on April 16, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Lars Hagberg

Ontario’s latest COVID-19 modelling shows that hospitalizations and ICU occupancy are stable as officials examine how the long-term effects of the virus will vary in certain people.

Ontario’s Science Advisory board says high vaccination rates remain integral in control over case growth and continued public health measures. Further, the science table says vaccine coverage is growing slowly, with a higher cumulative number of vaccinated individuals over a seven-day average.

The health table also looked at how “long COVID” will significantly impact the health of thousands of Ontarians.

“About 1 in 10 individuals with COVID-19 infection will continue to have symptoms lasting more than 12 weeks (estimated 57,000 to 78,000 individuals in Ontario based on data up to August 2021),” the science advisory board writes.

The most common symptoms include fatigue, shortness of breath, pain, anxiety and depression, trouble thinking and concentrating, also known as brain fog.

The science table says vaccines reduce the risk of infection by 85 per cent and diminish the chance of developing “Long COVID-19” in breakthrough infections by about 50 per cent. They also say that residents who contract the virus and produce long-term effects could lead to an increased incidence of new chronic conditions, such as diabetes or
cardiovascular disease and the “severe impairment of home-life and day to day activities for some individuals.”

In what the board calls the most comprehensive follow-up study consisting of 12 months, they concluded that 12 per cent of all infected individuals had not returned to work. Among the 88 per cent who did return, approximately 24 per cent had not returned to their pre-COVID-19 level of work.

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Despite the stability being seen in hospitals and ICUs, the province’s science table predicts more younger patients admitted with the virus than previous waves.

New infections have also increased in children in recent weeks, specifically in youth aged five to 11. Data from late August shows roughly 30 new infections per 100,000 of the population in this age group, but that has grown to over 50 since mid-September. Similar but less substantial growth is being seen in children aged 12 to 17.

Ontario’s daily case counts have so far remained under 1,000 during the fourth wave, and the graph of Ontario’s seven-day average roughly shows a plateau since the beginning of September.

That’s well under the worst-case scenario in Ontario’s previous modelling, which showed about 4,000 daily cases by now.

Reality is more in line with the best-case scenario, in which cases would have steadily fallen since September 1.


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