There’s no doubt about it: at this moment Premier Kathleen Wynne isn’t terribly popular.
That said, her current unpopularity is far from a guarantee that the June 2018 election means a turfing in her future.
If the latest Angus Reid poll can be believed, Wynne’s support has fallen to a measly 12 per cent as of the end of March (and pre-budget, but more on that later).
And until the end of this year, things likely won’t get any easier for Ontario’s 25th premier.
At Sudbury.com, we know that if we post a story about Wynne, or MPP Glenn Thibeault or the provincial Liberals in general, we’re going to have to moderate the comments pretty hard — people are not shy in their descriptions of the violent fates they’d like to see befall all three.
People are angry. They’re angry about high electricity rates and overcrowded hospitals. They’re still angry about the gas plant scandal.
Actually, saying voters are “angry” might not accurately convey the depth of that anger. Some people are downright nuclear.
And it isn’t going to get easier for the Liberals any time soon. They can visit Sudbury, cheques in hand, all they want, and many, many voters will still scoff.
The question is, will enough of them continue to scoff until election time. What’s more, can the opposition capitalize on the Liberals’ flagging support?
That question is more up in the air than you might suspect.
This month, the Liberals move ahead with the final third of its plan to sell off 60 per cent of Hydro One to private investors. Many voters see the sale as a betrayal. Not only are electricity rates still painfully high, but voters no longer own their own public utility outright.
That anger should last through the summer, just in time for the Sudbury byelection scandal and (if you can believe it) the gas plant scandal to be back in the news.
In September, Gerry Lougheed Jr. and Wynne’s former deputy chief of staff, Pat Sorbara, will be in court as the byelection scandal goes before a judge. Weeks after, David Livingston and Laura Miller (former Premier Dalton McGuinty’s chief of staff and deputy chief of staff, respectively) will be in court on charges of breach of trust and mischief, related to the gas plant scandal.
More anger.
Still, the next election isn’t until June, 2018. Politically, that’s a long time, and Wynne, if nothing else, is a heck of a campaigner. This is the politician who won a majority government despite the gas plants and a very public battle with teachers. This is politician who won back the Sudbury riding despite the byelection scandal.
Wynne’s also been able to rely on a considerable amount of campaign help from some unlikely corners, namely the NDP and the Progressive Conservatives.
Now, there you have two parties that have demonstrated time and again an uncanny ability to pull defeat from the jaws of victory.
Wynne knows what motivates voters. Remember the Angus Reid poll I referenced earlier? That was before the Liberal budget dropped.
The most recent poll (Campaign Research, released May 16) saw Wynne’s personal support climb to 19 per cent, with a majority (37 per cent) of voters saying they would vote Liberal if the election were held tomorrow. No fooling. Like I said, Wynne is no political slouch.
NDP Leader Andrea Horwath is consistently popular as a party leader, but can’t seem to haul her party up to her level.
Tory Leader Patrick Brown is everything Tim Hudak wasn’t, but neither of them have been able to strike the chord with voters that a Mike Harris could. Brown’s the most popular party leader (29 per cent, Campaign Research), and the Tories are only three points behind the Liberals in that same poll.
But despite that popularity, the March poll by Forum found 44 per cent of those polls aren’t quite sure what to make of Patrick Brown. If he can’t turn it around and find a way to resonate, the ballot box will not be his friend come June 2018.
Here’s the bottom line, by the next election, the Liberals will have been in power for 15 years. That’s a long time, maybe (probably) too long for any party to hold the reins.
This election is for the NDP and the Tories to lose. Maybe if Horwath leans right a bit and Brown leans left, they can find some common ground and send the Grits packing.
And maybe, just maybe, one of them will finally pull up their socks enough to convince voters their party is ready for the big show.
Mark Gentili is the managing editor of Sudbury.com and Northern Life.
