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Modelling suggests Canadians hospitalized with COVID-19 could surpass the first wave

Over the past week, there’s been an average of just over 2,000 patients being treated in hospitals across the country.
emerg hosp vanc
A person wears a protective face mask to help prevent the spread of Covid-19 as they walk past the emergency department of the Vancouver General Hospital in Vancouver Wednesday, November 18, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward

Canada is entering week 38 of pandemic life and there are big concerns about the health care system being able to keep up.

New analysis reportedly shows that the number of Canadians hospitalized with COVID-19 will soon surpass the peak of the first wave.

The modelling reportedly shows that the country is on track to have 4,000 COVID-19 patients hospitalized by Christmas. The analysis was done for the Globe and Mail by researchers at Simon Fraser University.

Canada’s Chief Medical Officer Theresa Tam has recently warned of the rapid spread of the virus.

“Every 100 cases in Canada passes the virus to more than 100 others with each new generational spread getting larger,” says Tam. “The strain on health systems has resulted in hospitals having to postpone important medical procedures. Critical care beds for COVID-19 patients have reached or are at near maximum capacity in some areas.” 

Over the past week, there’s been an average of just over 2,000 patients being treated in hospitals across the country. That number has nearly doubled since the end of October.

Several hospitals in the GTA are struggling even though experts suggest Ontario and Quebec are sitting in better shape overall compared to the first wave.

Some of the steepest increases in hospitalizations are happening in the west, particularly in Alberta. If that province continues on its current trajectory hospitals there will see more patients than Ontario hospitals. Alberta has approximately one third of the population.