Greater Sudbury is the lone major urban centre in Northern Ontario expecting its population to grow in the next 30 years, says a report headed to the planning committee April 9.
The City of Greater Sudbury Outlook for Growth to 2046 is a document aimed at guiding planning and other decisions for the next 30 years. Prepared by Hemson Consulting, the forecast uses three scenarios for population growth, ranging from the lowest likely scenario to the most optimistic.
“Greater Sudbury is expected to grow over the next 30 years by between 6,900 to 15,000 people, 6,000 to 8,400 households and 6,400 to 11,000 jobs under the reference and high growth scenarios,” the report says.
“Greater Sudbury stands out as the only major urban area in Northern Ontario with a growing population,” the report says. “By contrast Thunder Bay, Sault Ste. Marie, Timmins and North Bay have all either experienced no increase or a declining population since 2001."
Greater Sudbury’s population bottomed out in 1978, the report says, at a time when significant layoffs took place at the mining companies. Since then, our population has grown slowly but steadily.
“There are several factors that contribute to the increase in population, in particular, strong mining and service sectors,” the report says.
But as a cyclical industry, estimating employment and population in the coming years is a more complicated task.
“Mining continues to be the most important economic factor affecting the growth outlook for Greater Sudbury,” the report said. “It creates variability with respect to the city’s economic outlook, and over the longer term, can be influenced by resources outside Greater Sudbury such as the Ring of Fire west of the James Bay.
“Sudbury acts as a regional service centre for nearby municipalities including North Bay and Sault Ste Marie and provides a draw with additional amenities. This regional service function provides some stability to the long-term growth outlook.”
In terms of job growth, from a total of 79,440 jobs in 2016, employment could experience “modest growth to 81,230 under the low scenario, increase under the reference scenario to 85,750, or possibly as high as 90,460 under the high growth scenario,” the report said.
“It is our view that the reference scenario should be used for financial planning and growth management policy purposes.”
*In an earlier version of this story, the link to the report was broken. It has been fixed.
