Posted by Greater Sudbury Northern Life
Ontario’s economy is going down the drain and Premier Dalton McGuinty and his Liberal government could go down with it.
This may seem a harsh verdict, but there is evidence those who govern in recessions suffer, and even get kicked out, when the province’s economy plunges into deep trouble, as it has now, whether they are responsible or not.
It may seem extreme even to think of McGuinty soon being given his marching orders, because until a few weeks ago, he was enjoying the easiest ride a premier has had in decades.
McGuinty won a second successive majority in 2007 and the opposition parties since have been almost neutered.
Progressive Conservative leader John Tory lost that election because he had an unpopular ambition to expand provincial funding to more religious schools, and this will be held against him in the next election and the Liberals will make sure it is.
The New Democrats have not been even a slight threat since the early 1990s and are picking a new leader amid little enthusiasm they can influence events soon.
McGuinty cannot be blamed for the current recession, which started when greedy, unregulated financial institutions in the United States coaxed many to buy homes they could not afford and prompted a collapse of confidence in business around the world.
But look at what happened, first, to Liberal premier David Peterson in a recession in 1990. Peterson had many problems when he called an election, including calling it after only three instead of the customary four years.
Peterson said he needed it to renew his mandate to negotiate changes in the Constitution, although this was an issue in which Ontarians had lost most of the slight interest they previously had, because of lack of progress.
Peterson did not mention a recession was on the way. The closest he came was noting Ontario industries were increasingly facing tough competition from the United States and around the world.
But plants in Ontario were starting to close or move to the United States or Mexico, where labor cost less and employers could operate with less supervision by government.
Unemployment was beginning to rise and surveys showed confidence among consumers dropping sharply and Peterson played this down.
But news media began suggesting a recession was on its way and it became clear Peterson had called this election early, hoping to get it over before it took hold and became a major issue.
Peterson could not be accused of causing the recession, because it was shaping up in other jurisdictions, but his government clearly recognized it would be hurt if Ontarians had to vote while the recession was uppermost in voters’ minds.
Peterson also confirmed the recession had arrived by promising to cut the provincial sales tax to save jobs — not an action a government takes lightly.
Peterson lost the election and his seat in the legislature and it ended his career in politics and underlined a party that governs during a recession has difficulty persuading voters to keep it.
By the time Peterson’s successor as premier, New Democrat Bob Rae, took over, the recession had a solid grip and, whatever else people blamed him for, he could not be considered its cause.
Rae had to struggle to maintain needed services and ran annual budget deficits as high as $10 billion, but few gave him any credit for coping in a recession.
Rae throughout his premiership was identified with the recession he never started through such acts as newspapers publishing drawings of empty factories and lamenting this was what Rae had done to Ontario.
Rae’s popularity fell so low he delayed calling an election until his party had been in power for five years, hoping for some last-minute reprieve, but it never came and when he was forced to hold a vote, his party was decimated.
McGuinty can be forgiven if he worries that what happened to others who governed during a recession could happen to him.
Eric Dowd is a veteran member of the Queen’s Park press gallery.
