EDITOR’S NOTE: This article originally appeared on The Trillium, a new Village Media website devoted exclusively to covering provincial politics at Queen’s Park.
The biggest nuclear plant in Canada is set to get a whole lot bigger.
With the province facing a daunting energy supply shortage in the coming decades, Ontario's PC government is looking to expand Bruce Power's nuclear capacity by nearly 5,000 megawatts, enough energy to power roughly five million homes. Bruce's current capacity is just over 6,000 megawatts.
"Initiating this early planning is going to ensure that the province has a reliable, low cost and clean option ready and available here at Bruce Power to power the next major international investment, the new homes that are being built in the province, and industries and sectors across the province as they grow and look to electrify," Energy Minister Todd Smith said in Kincardine, near the plant itself.
The plan has to go through various stages of approval by both levels of government before construction can actually start. That process could take a decade or more, which is why the Tories are starting "pre-development work" on the nascent project, Smith said.
Bruce Power will work on the environmental assessment and community consultations necessary for federal approval to help speed the process up.
The first step along the approval chain is a federally-led impact assessment, which studies the benefits and drawbacks of a proposed project and tries to mitigate any negative outcomes.
Impact assessments can take a long time. The Tories are no strangers to them, either, with one of their signature highway projects currently caught up in a review. The provincial press release suggested the PCs aren't exactly fans of the process.
"The Impact Assessment Act complicates" the project's timeline because it allows the Impact Assessment Agency or a federal minister "to pause the process without firm timelines to provide a final decision," said a government press release.
Smith also nudged federal Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson on the topic during his opening remarks.
"I hope to work with Minister Wilkinson ... and the federal government to clarify and reduce the timelines, (and) minimize the inefficiencies and duplication in the federal government's major project reviews so that we can get this work done quickly and efficiently," he said.
After the impact assessment is done the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC) takes over to ensure each step of the process — from site preparation through operation to decommissioning — has adequate safeguards.
The province also plans to conduct consultations with Indigenous communities and seek additional federal dollars. The press release singled out the new clean energy investment tax credit as a way to make the project more affordable.
"This is a positive trend. It's about time we start to take the long view of matters," said Jatin Nathwani, a professor of engineering at the University of Waterloo and leading expert in energy policy. The process announced on Wednesday is a good first step in sorting out a "fairly disciplined" way to "engage the communities and people who may be impacted," he said.
Mark Winfield, a professor of political science at York University specializing in energy policy, expressed some concern about the potential risks to Ontario ratepayers and taxpayers of such a big project.
"This is not something to be undertaken lightly," he said. Nuclear plants aren't exactly cheap and tend towards cost overruns, he said, pointing to the Darlington plant's original construction that put big strains on the provincial purse.
The "pre-development work" for a potential new build isn't the only thing keeping Bruce Power busy. The plant has three reactors currently in or slated for refurbishment with an eye to keeping the plant open into the 2060s.
Ontario's Independent Electricity System Operator expects electricity demand to grow by just under two per cent per year for the near future — as the population booms and new industries look for more power — meaning the province could need to as much as double its current output.
Wednesday's announcement is the latest in a series of moves intended to shore up Ontario's energy supply.
In May, he announced the province secured additional natural gas and energy storage capacity to help meet shorter-term energy needs and said more would come later this summer. Late-2022 also saw a natural gas plant expansion focused on near-term needs.
Last fall, Smith announced the government would seek CNSC approval to slightly extend Pickering nuclear plant's operation from 2025 to 2026, while also asking Ontario Power Generation (OPG) to study if the plant could be refurbished to operate for an additional 30 years. Smith hasn't heard back from either the CNSC or OPG, he said on Wednesday.
The Darlington nuclear plant is also in the midst of a refurbishment. One of the reactors is already done, having started work in 2016 and completed in 2020. Two other reactors are under construction and are expected to be completed in early 2024 and late 2025. The fourth unit will start refurbishment work later this year and is expected to be done in late 2026.
Darlington will also be home to Canada's first small modular nuclear reactor (SMR). SMRs are much smaller than traditional nuclear reactors and produce less energy. OPG started preparing the site for the project late last year and construction should be done by 2028.
