Historically, governments fall when we’ve had enough of them. Occasionally someone comes along (say Pierre Trudeau) and determines the outcome of an election based on charisma alone, but that is unusual.
This time around, we seem unenthusiastically satisfied with the Liberals.
John Tory, leader of the Progressive Conservatives in Ontario, who is campaigning well might have been premier if he hadn’t decided to bet the farm on faith based education. Now that he has been forced to stand down, we’ll see how his theme on “Leadership Matters” performs.
That said we don’t think the Liberals deserve to lose. They only deserve to be cautioned.
The reality is this. If you hadn’t heard about the McGuinty promises, and particularly the ones he broke, you would give this government at least a “B” on performance.
They have taken a ridiculous deficit of billions left to them by Tories in good economic times and deftly arrived in an election year with a surplus. They have put more money into education and health care. If you are a parent, you don’t need to be reminded of the Harris years.
They have made a start on an alternate energy plan, and arguably are no worse than the Tory numbskulls who were running Ontario Hydro before the Liberals arrived.
Their biggest accomplishment was to establish the greenbelt area outside of Toronto, which is fraught with political risk. The developers in the 905 area have been funding Tories and Liberals, councillors, mayors, and anyone near a decision on land for generations.
Every now and again a shocking revelation emerges. Last week in an astonishingly frank court decision, one of the king pins of the development world in 905 was forced to pay the province’s legal costs ($761,000) for what the judges of the Superior Court described as behaviour falling well within the meaning of “reprehensible, scandalous or outrageous conduct.”
The developer was having a temper tantrum because some of his land was frozen out in the greenbelt, and he didn’t like the trade the province proposed to him.
Developers rule southern Ontario, which why we need campaign funding laws to limit their overwhelming influence.
On that score alone, McGuinty deserves tremendous credit. I’m not sure how long the greenbelt would last under a Conservative administration, but the odds indicate not as long as with the Liberals.
Importantly the McGuinty government has recognized that for the province to be strong, it must recognize the importance of regional and city-state economies.
The City of Toronto Act is an important step in recognizing the unique economic characteristics of the City of Toronto.
The fact that the City of Toronto is currently making a mess of it is not the most important thing to watch for. The fact that the mayor and councillors of Toronto are stewing in their own dysfunction indicates that some real change has occurred. They will grow up and get used to responsibility now that they have it.
The Liberals have sent indications through the Minister of Infrastructure Renewal that they will have a comprehensive look at Northern Ontario in the same light. This is good news.
Where the Liberals blew it, like letting Inco and Falconbridge, and Algoma Steel, and Dofasco and Stelco disappear without a whimper, well they were no worse than the Tories who were and are nowhere on these issues.
And so let’s get to the promises. Yes the Liberals made some promises they did not keep. They are not alone. In 1984 Pierre Trudeau buried Robert Stanfield who suggested in the election that we needed wage and price controls.
Trudeau destroyed Standfield by ridiculing the idea. Six months later he imposed them.
In 1984 Brian Mulroney theatrically lambasted John Turner, the sitting prime minister, for allowing some Trudeau patronage appointments to be sealed before the election.
He famously pointed a finger at Turner and said, “You had an option sir. You could have said, “ I’m not going to do it.”
Turner froze and it became a legendary debate “knockout.” Of course within months, Mulroney became one of the worst patronage dispensers in our history and that was before we started hearing about cash being handed out in hotel rooms for pasta consulting.
In the run up to the 1993 election, Jean Chretien said he would get rid of the GST tax. Need I go on.
Although it is John Tory’s time to be sanctimonious about promises who is to say he won’t do exactly the same thing. His hawkish Caledonia remarks, and his belief he can spend more and lower taxes sounds very, very, very, very familiar, and on the face of not doable.
On balance the Liberals have earned another round.
Although we believe Northern Ontario governance needs a complete rethink by the province there is no denying the Minister of Northern Development and Mines has brought substantial funding to numerous initiatives in Sudbury and Northern Ontario.
On that score he has done a superb job and deserves the support of Sudburians.
This is not a hard decision to make. We regret an immense talent like John Tory will be wasted (he certainly won’t stay around long in opposition), but the timing is not right. It might well be right in four years.
Michael Atkins
