Toronto – One sign of how far Ontario’s once mighty Progressive Conservative party has fallen is the scarcity of candidates to lead it.
Incumbent John Tory lost an election and his seat, which normally would be enough disaster to change leaders, in October and the party in a few weeks will consider whether it wants him to stay.
This party has ruled the province for 50 of the last 65 years in which anyone it chose leader almost automatically became premier.
Only one of its leaders in that time has failed to make it to premier - Larry Grossman, who was made leader in opposition in one of its rare slumps and lost an election and his seat and quit.
Conservative leader has been the most coveted job in Ontario politics, but aspirants for it are not lining up. More people queue in any fast-food outlet on a cold winter’s night just to buy coffee.
One deterrent is Tory, who says he will fight hard to stay and has strengths, but no divine right to hold on.
The Conservatives also do not have many in their upper echelons who have demonstrated leadership qualities.
But a third reason challengers are not lining up is being Ontario Conservative leader does not provide the assurance of becoming premier it once did – it is not the prize it was.
There were signs of this in 2004, after Ernie Eves left having been defeated as premier and Tory had to fight off only former deputy premier Jim Flaherty and former minister Frank Klees.
This contrasted with a couple of years earlier, when premier Mike Harris stepped down undefeated with his party still in power and five senior current or former ministers, Eves, Flaherty, Elizabeth Witmer, Tony Clement and Chris Stockwell, ran to succeed him.
When Conservative premier William Davis retired in 1985, four more household names ran for his job, Frank Miller, a finance minister homespun so many could identify with him, Grossman, smart but abrasive, Roy McMurtry, whose gift of the gab was compared to the Kennedys’ and Dennis Timbrell, an efficient if colorless health minister.
When premier John Robarts retired in 1971, five top ministers ran, Davis, bland but reliable, Al Lawrence, a thoughtful rebel, Darcy McKeough, on his way to being an innovative treasurer, Robert Welch, a supreme negotiator, and Bert Lawrence, brimming with ideas.
And when Leslie Frost left in 1961, no fewer than six ministers and one MPP ran, including Robarts, Kelso Roberts, an attorney general admired enough he led on the first ballot, and the versatile Robert Macaulay.
The only previous time in six decades the Conservatives have found few willing to run for leader was after Grossman lost the 1987 election and they bottomed with only 25 per cent of the vote and 16 of 130 seats.
The Conservatives put off choosing a full leader for three years, but the big names expected to be candidates still found irresistible reasons for staying close to home and hearth – nothing to do with their party’s reduced chances of winning, of course.
These included Timbrell, who had twice come close, Bob Runciman, such a terror of governments it is ludicrous he has never run for leader, Tom Long, who as party president did a lot to reorganize it back on its feet, and Tory, who had been Davis’s principal secretary, but said he had to put his young family first.
The only candidates the party could find in the end were Dianne Cunningham, who had just won a memorable by-election but lacked experience, and a little known backbencher, Mike Harris.
Harris won and this small race proved highly productive, because two elections later he regained power for the Conservatives in a landslide with his policies of cutting government and taxes.
The Conservatives had so much such difficulty finding a candidate to run in one riding in the last election they advertised in a newspaper – do they now have to advertise for one for leader?
Eric Dowd is a veteran member of the Queen’s Park press gallery.
