Toronto - The party that ruled Ontario for 50 of the last 65 years is down, but it is a mistake to think it is out. The Progressive Conservatives keep accumulating problems. They will hold on to a leader, John Tory, who lost an election and his seat in October, mainly because he proposed funding private faith-based schools, which many feel would divide youth.
This will be held against him at the next election, because the Liberals will make sure of it, and it is heavy baggage.
The Conservatives could have opted for a leader with mere hand luggage, so Tory was not the most prudent choice.
They took on extra kilos through a convention in which they kept their leader with little enthusiasm - if a party cannot be enthusiastic about its leader, who can be? - and wound up with news media calling him indecisive, dithering, weak and guilty of ridiculous and alarming behavior. This was because 66 per cent of delegates voted for Tory to stay, but he waited three hours before announcing it was enough and reporters felt he should have responded immediately.
Tory could be said to have a right to ruminate before committing to a course so important to himself and his party and the media — dare it be said? — were irritated partly because they had to meet deadlines, but some kept up this attack for days and this further damaged the party.
The whole process has prompted predictions the Conservatives will be divided, struggling and no threat to the Liberals at the next election and this is a possible scenario, but not inevitable.
Parties normally have divisions after leadership contests and Tory still has to try to bring back many Conservatives who prefer the far right policies of former premier Mike Harris.
He could help by a few policy changes, not too far right, and personal overtures, because many in this once powerful party are now alerted to the danger of not sticking together.
Tory will need a stricter process for screening policies. It remains one of the great mysteries of Ontario politics how he came to promise funding for faith-based schools, when anyone around when funding religious schools was an issue in the 1971 and 1985 elections should have recognized the danger.
Tory will have to avoid gaffes, because he is seen as a loser and will be ridiculed for any misstep, much as the admired federal Conservative leader Robert Stanfield was for fumbling a football in a makeup game.
But the Conservatives’ best hope of luring back the discontented would be a strong performance by Tory. He is handicapped by lacking a seat in the legislature from which to ask questions, criticize the government and spur on his MPPs and needs one quickly to prove he can lead effectively.
Conservative MPPs almost unanimously supported Tory to stay as leader and this should prompt one to step aside.
Tory is capable of strong questioning, as when he held the Liberals to account for failing to protect buyers of lottery tickets from fraudulent retailers and appearing to steer grants to immigrant groups run by Liberals.
He also proved a more effective debater on TV in the election than Premier Dalton McGuinty. Tory will need to get more production out of his MPPs and they should be willing to provide it for reasons including they overwhelmingly wanted him to continue as leader.
He has ability there that has not been fully tapped. Veteran MPP Bob Runciman, who stood in as party leader in the legislature in the few days it has sat since the election, made the sharpest attack the Conservatives have made on the government in months, particularly for its loss of $100 million in subprime mortgage investing, which had almost escaped criticism.
It also should be remembered most governments are not beaten, but dig their own graves and the Conservatives can profit merely by establishing themselves as an alternative, which still is a long shot, but could happen.
Eric Dowd is a veteran member of the press gallery at Queen's Park.
