BY ERIC DOWD
One sign Liberal Premier Dalton McGuinty is in trouble is the way so many of his MPPs unexpectedly are refusing to run for him again in the Oct. 10 election.
Half a dozen Liberals so far have opted not to run this time and they include two ministers, a former minister, and a backbencher who must have been on the fringe of being considered for such promotion.
Most have cited “personal” reasons for not running, which is what ordinary citizens often say when they are leaving jobs, want to remain on good terms, collect their gold watches and not reveal concerns.
Marie Bountrogianni, minister of intergovernmental affairs, says she wants to spend more time with her family.
Mary Anne Chambers, minister for children and youth services, says she has health concerns that are forcing her to slow down.
Jennnifer Mossop, a former TV interviewer, who might have been on the verge of getting in cabinet, because McGuinty desperately needs ministers who know how to talk to the public, says her musician husband, who has been caring for their four-year-old daughter, has to spend more time on tour.
Judy Marsales, who operates a real estate brokerage, says she got tired of long hours at the legislature and particularly night sittings that are more boring than selling houses.
Richard Patten, the ex-minister but more recently a backbencher, says he wants to make a more worthwhile contribution to society than being a backbencher, and there are many.
Ernie Parsons said a year ago he wanted to leave after a son died, so he could spend more time with his other children, and that has to be accepted.
Some MPPs leave before every election, particularly for age and varied reasons including differences with their parties’ policies and direction.
Bountrogianni, for example, is nominally the most successful, but intergovernmental affairs ministers rarely have much power, because decisions on how to deal with other governments usually are made by premiers.
None of the departing MPPs is of normal retirement age. Ministers who have put in effort to get in cabinet and been in the job only four years, with many goals still to achieve, do not usually quit for more time with family.
Most backbenchers have found night sessions boring, but the legislature sits only half the year and they usually can endure them for more than four years.
One common denominator among the dropouts is their party, after leading the polls for almost four years, suddenly is in a tight race in the election and in some danger of losing government.
Liberal candidates suddenly are less sure of winning seats or may wind up in opposition. Politicians often lose their zest for running when winning is uncertain and there have been many demonstrations of this.
The most striking was in the 1980s, when the Progressive Conservatives lost government after 42 consecutive years during which nominations to run for them were almost equivalent to being elected and sought eagerly, sometimes by those who previously supported other parties.
The Conservative leader, Larry Grossman, was already having difficulty attracting candidates and admitted he was kept awake nights worrying how he could raise enough money to fight the 1987 election, which was not heartening news to a party accustomed to having more money to pay for election propaganda than the other parties combined.
Many Conservatives who might have run, including former senior ministers Bette Stephenson, Dennis Timbrell, Bob Elgie and “emperor of the north” Leo Bernier, found they had reasons to stay home.
Voters noticed their absence and this helped the Conservatives plunge to their lowest level ever in the legislature.
The danger to McGuinty is when his ministers and MPPs refuse to run again it suggests they lack confidence in him.
Eric Dowd is a veteran member of the Queen’s Park press gallery.
