No new MPP in memory has attracted as much attention as Progressive Conservative Party Leader John Tory, but it still does not guarantee him quick success. The interest is understandable, first because Conservatives have been in government 50 of the last 62 years and their leaders are almost as assured of becoming premier as a boss?s son of heading his father?s company.
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The Conservatives? only full (as distinct from interim) leader not to make it to premier in six decades was Larry Grossman in the 1980s.
Tory?s prospects are increased further because the Liberal government of Premier Dalton McGuinty has had a shaky year-and-a-half start and been mostly low in polls.
Voters are volatile and have changed governments four times in the last six elections.
Tory is helped because he has promised to make his Conservatives radically different from those under premiers Mike Harris and later Ernie Eves.
Harris particularly was ultra right-wing in policies and abrasive in style. Tory says he will resemble more the long line of leaders who had moderate policies and style and kept his party in government without a break from 1943-85.
Tory?s chances also have increased because there is no sign the New Democrats are regaining anything like the popularity that won them government in 1990. The huge deficits they ran up remain a dirty word among voters.
Some Conservatives are licking their lips at the vision of returning to power as early as the next election in 2007 ? dates are now fixed by law for every four years.
However, governing parties that were defeated have not returned to power quickly. The Conservatives took 10 years to win their way back after being pushed out in 1985 and the Liberals 13 years after being defeated in 1990.
Tory may find it difficult to offer moderate policies when the Liberals occupy so much of the middle ground. He will have trouble dissociating himself
from his party?s reputation in government of starving services while dining lavishly in the best hotels.
Tory says Conservatives will win respect by avoiding personal attacks and increasing decorum in debates, but he has a raucous caucus which he
will have a problem restraining.
The Liberals also have quietly climbed to 44 per cent in the most recent poll, which traditionally has been enough to win a majority. They have done this by steadily bringing in programs to protect residents including banning smoking in enclosed public spaces and workplaces by next spring, curbing pit bulls and preserving greenbelt. These are things earlier Conservatives should have done, but failed, and Tory is now well-known enough he will be asked why.
Eric Dowd is a veteran member of the Queen?s Park press gallery.
