What always promised to be a rough ride for the Progressive Conservatives in Ontario’s Oct.10 election is becoming a train wreck.
The opposition party led by John Tory has slipped to an average 34 percent in polls, which are not infallible, but signs of its problems are everywhere.
There is an old adage that a week is a long time in politics, but normally this has proved too deep a hole for a party to dig itself out of so close to a vote.
The ride promised to be bumpy particularly because many voters still are angry at Mike Harris, Conservative premier from 1995-2002, who cut taxes, weakened services and threatened to punch the nose of anyone who dared cross his path.
Tory has had some assets, the most valuable being voters lack enthusiasm for Liberal Premier Dalton McGuinty, particularly because he broke promises.
In various polls, voters have picked Tory as the leader who is most likeable, most likely to keep promises and has most leadership qualities.
Tory also outperformed McGuinty in the TV debate between leaders, making his case more fluently and remaining calmer and more poised.
But his policies have not been dramatic enough alternatives to arouse voters, with the notable exception of his promise to fund private faith-based schools, which has driven them away.
Tory’s connection to Harris clearly has hurt him and McGuinty has made sure voters know of it. The premier has started most speeches and much of his TV advertising urging voters not to return to what he calls an era of cuts and confrontations. He rarely mentioned Harris by name, but did not need to.
McGuinty has pointed to Tory’s assertion he would save big money by making government more efficient, and said earlier Conservatives who promised this, meaning Harris, closed hospitals and schools, fired nurses and disheartened teachers.
One of the premier’s favourite stunts has been to go to schools and ask students how many teachers’ strikes they have had recently, then contrast their answer (none) with the millions of school days they lost through strikes under Harris.
Many Conservative candidates have such fear of being linked to Harris they describe themselves as John Tory candidates in their campaign literature and never let the word Conservative get into print.
The bigger harm to the Conservatives, which was not expected, has been caused by Tory’s promise to extend provincial funding to private faith-based.
Most people, including many who subscribe to these minority faiths, prefer McGuinty’s argument extending funding would further divide children, when they should be learning to live together and understand and respect each other.
Several Conservative MPPs, candidates and party luminaries have disagreed with or expressed concerns at Tory’s policy and his party now has the biggest rift of any in an election campaign in memory. Voters have less confidence in a party that cannot stay united.
Tory has to take responsibility for his own policies, but clearly was prompted into this politically disastrous one by the former Conservative premier, William Davis, who should be the world’s authority on extending funding to faith-based schools.
Tory once worked for Davis and often describes him as his role model and mentor. Davis refused Roman Catholics’ request for funding to the end of high school in 1971 and won an election partly because of it, but later reversed and approved it to reward a highly political cardinal who flattered instead of bringing down the wrath of heaven on him.
Davis has offered to head a commission to help Tory make it work, if it ever got approved. Tory is likely to lose this election and, if he does, two former Conservative premiers, Harris and Davis, should get a lot of the blame.
Eric Dowd is a veteran member of the Queen’s Park press gallery.
