How will Nickel Belt vote Monday? I predict
people voting with their hearts will support the New Democrats
while crossing their fingers expecting Liberal Ray Bonin to be
re-elected.
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VICKI GILHULA |
The lawn signs in this huge riding say it
all. It is not unusual see to see Bonin's red and white signs
on the same lawns as Claude Gravelle's orange and green NDP
signs.
Nickel Belt has never sent a Conservative or
Alliance (Reform) representative to Ottawa.
It is unlikely to do so Monday, although Mike
Dupont is the most creditable and high-profile candidate to run
on the right in this riding for a long time.
It has, however, historically been a swing
riding for the Liberals and New Democrats.
It was NDP for most of the 1970s and was
represented by NDP John Rodriguez during the Mulroney years.
Bonin has been the MP since 1993.
Nickel Belt riding contains part of Greater
Sudbury outside the old city of Sudbury limits.
It now includes a portion of
Timiskaming-Cochrane in the southeast. It stretches from
Nipissing to Algoma-Manitoulin in the west and Parry
Sound-Muskoka in the south.
Killarney, French River and Markstay-Warren
fall within the riding.
In the 2001 census, 43 per cent of residents
listed French as their mother tongue. The average family income
is $60,237 and unemployment is a high 10 per cent. There are
several native reserves, including the Whitefish Lake Reserve
and Wahnapitei Reserve.
Neil Shyminsky, 22, one of the few young
people at the all-candidates' debate in Hanmer Tuesday night,
says he is undecided. But he is "leaning" toward the NDP.
He likes what the party stands for. He is
impressed that party leader Jack Layton appeared on
MuchMusic.
But he admits he doesn't expect the New
Democrat candidate to win in Nickel Belt. He would vote Liberal
if he thought the Conservatives had a chance of winning.
"Bonin will probably win," predicts the
University of York student who, unlike many young Canadians,
has an interest in politics. This will be the first time he
votes in a federal election. His brother Devon, 20, and friend
Andrew Franke, 25, are also leaning toward the New
Democrats.
Everyone they know is supporting the NDP,
they say.
Devon didn't think Gravelle performed well at
the debate, but he likes Layton.
A dozen or so people polled after the debate
also said they were voting NDP.
An Azilda woman, 57, said she voted Liberal
last election, but will vote NDP Monday.
Since many Canadians like to keep their
politics private, she asked not to be identified.
She said she doesn't think the Liberals have
done anything for Nickel Belt.
She does remember that a few years ago when
her husband, a truck driver, had a difficult time getting
affordable vehicle insurance, he got help from NDP MPP Floyd
Laughren.
She also thinks the NDP plays an important
role in opposition.
Like Shyminsky, she doesn't want to see
Stephen Harper become prime minister. She has concerns about
what she has heard about his stand on bilingualism.
Heather MacIvor, a political science
professor at the University of Windsor, told a CBC Radio One
host this week she expects Canadians to say they are fed up
with the Liberals on Election Day, then wake up Tuesday and
still find them safely in power.
Bonin did not have an easy time at the
all-candidates' debate. But he did have a chance to set the
record straight.
"A few people who stole money does not make
Ray Bonin a crook," he said of the sponsorship scandal.
He countered accusations that the Liberals
had taken $25 billion out of health-care by saying "$34 million
has been put back in."
In his opening remarks, he said the Liberals
had fought hard to save FedNor which has invested in, and
created jobs in, Northern Ontario.
Gravelle and Dupont had the most supporters
in the audience and they received the loudest applause.
Dupont, a photographer and past-president of
the Greater Sudbury Chamber of Commerce, said he was concerned
that "if there isn't a change of government our tax dollars
will be going in the wrong direction."
He said he knows middle-income workers who
are heavily taxed and barely getting by.
Toward the end of the evening, the
francophone Dupont got emotional when answering a question
about where his party stands on bilingualism.
"To propose I would run for a party that
would not favour bilingualism is fear-mongering to take away
from the real issues of the campaign."
The debate in Nickel Belt was one of the best
I have attended in a long time. There are seven candidates,
which made for lively discussion. About 150
people attended the event and they listened
very politely to the candidates.
Don Lavallee is running as an independent
candidate. Steve Rutchinski is the Marxist-Leninist Party of
Canada candidate. Michel Ethier of Sturgeon Falls is the
Marijuana Party candidate, while Steve Lafleur is running for
the Green Party of Canada.
Rutchinski and several other candidates
talked about the need for election reform.
"We have a vote but no real say," he
said.
Lavallee said Parliament should be filled
with independent representatives because "politicians (from the
three mainstream parties) do not represent their
constituents."
The Green Party candidate suggested the
"first-past-the-post system" does not work. Reform is needed so
parties who receive a percentage of the popular vote have some
representation in the House of Commons, he said.
If the voters of Nickel Belt are at all
representative of the Canadian electorate, the election results
will be very interesting. And it will no doubt trigger more
calls for democratic reforms that allow people to vote for the
party or candidate they want in Ottawa, rather than for the
people they don't
want to lose.
