Sudbury dead last when it comes to job prospects

A report last week from the Bank of Montreal confirmed what many in the city already know: it's getting tough to find a job in Greater Sudbury.

The ranking of the top 33 cities in Canada placed us last in terms of job prospects, with Kelowna, B.C., and Windsor with us in the cellar. Robert Kavcic, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets, said per capita, the Nickel City shed more jobs in the last 12 months than anyone else.

"Employment is down seven per cent year over year,” Kavcic said. “That's the biggest decline, year over year, across the major cities in Canada.

"I would caution, though, with some of these smaller cities, you tend to get pretty wild swings in employment, even year to year."

Since January 2015, the jobless rate has increased from 5.9 per cent to 8.6 per cent. He said for a city like Sudbury, a weak mining sector translates into a major economic hit. And resource-reliant cities across Canada are feeling the pain.

"If you look at cities on this ranking that have ties to the resources sector — Calgary is up three per cent, Sudbury 2.7 per cent, Edmonton is up almost two percentage points," he said. "In a nutshell, that's probably the easiest way to summarize what's going on. If you're producing resources, you're probably having a rough time right now."

With nickel prices at about $3.55 US, Laurentian University economics Prof. Jean-Charles Cachon said both Vale and Glencore are cutting costs wherever they can. And that has a ripple effect on the entire industry. For example, companies that work in exploration haven't been able to get funding for the last couple of years, meaning that sector “is almost at a standstill right now.”

And Sudbury's status as a retail mecca for the North is affected, as other mining-reliant communities in northeast Ontario and northwest Quebec are hit by the downturn.

"So if mining is suffering, retail is going to suffer, as well," Cachon said. "We have about four per cent of our workforce working directly in the mines, and another 10 or 11 per cent working in the mining supply sector ... So the retrenchment in the commodities area is really affecting us.

"The other thing is that some companies from Sudbury had started working in the oil patch and have to retreat from that, as well."

But there are bright spots, he said. Public sector employment is still strong, and is expected to grow in the coming years, particularly in health care. And an aging workforce in that sector means there will be opportunities in the coming years.

"I believe there will be quite a lot of jobs that will need to be replaced."

Looking for opportunities

Karen Hourtovenko, president of the Greater Sudbury Chamber of Commerce, said it's easy to get caught up in the doom and gloom. She says it's important to focus on the opportunities that hard times bring, such as the competitive advantage exporters have as a result of the low Canadian dollar.

"From an economic growth standpoint, we have to look at other opportunities,” Hourtovenko said. "We do have areas of our economy that have been strong. We see positive growth in retail, there are still buildings being built — specifically on The Kingsway. In health care, education, we do see some growth.

"These ebbs and flows in our economy are nothing new to Sudbury or to Canada,” she said. “As opposed to seeing it as a crisis, we have to look to see what opportunity we take from this. And in this situation, exports because of the low Canadian dollar is a benefit."

There's also a stream of infrastructure projects that could generate significant economic activity if local and upper governments are able to co-ordinate their efforts.

"We hope that government will continue to focus on infrastructure development and investment, which will help bring job opportunities here," Hourtovenko said. "That's an important part of where we need to go.”

Working in the city's favour is the fact that three of the area's four provincial and federal politicians are in government. That means there's a much better chance they will work together on projects, rather than pulling in different directions.

"Having that alignment there is important for future communication,” she said. “Obviously, if you have partners on the same page they're going to communicate better. So that's something that makes us feel hopeful."

Sudbury has been through this before, Hourtovenko said, and people know that prices will rebound eventually.

"That ebb will come up to a flow again, and we want to focus on that, and on diversification."

And Cachon said the light at the end of the tunnel is likely not that far away.

"There is an expectation that things are going to improve over the next couple of years, I would say,” he said. “Hopefully by the end of 2017, there will be better days. Of course, there's also some hopes there will be some infrastructure funding."

"The ball is still in the camp of the federal government. And it's been there for the last couple of years. So hopefully the new Ottawa government is going to make good on their promises and invest into Northern Ontario's infrastructure."