Toronto – Premier Dalton McGuinty suddenly is sounding cocky and it will hurt him.
The Liberal leader declared his party will win a third successive majority in the 2011 election because the opposition parties cannot handle the challenges the province faces, and his is the only party that takes the time to get it right. He also said he will lead it in the next election.
McGuinty could be wrong on all counts. No party except in Russia can be sure of winning an election more than three years ahead.
McGuinty is far ahead in polls, the Progressive Conservative leader he defeated in 2007 cannot even obtain a seat to speak from in the legislature and the New Democrats have been moribund since a disastrous turn in government in a recession nearly two decades ago. But no one can rule out issues emerging that could erode McGuinty’s popularity including an economic slump he has been unable to do much to avoid.
Comfortable looking premiers have tumbled in less time. Conservative Mike Harris also won successive majority governments, but fell so quickly in favour with his policy of slashing public services he quit before voters could turn him out.
David Peterson, last Liberal premier before McGuinty, had a huge majority in polls right up to the time he called an election and lost even his seat.
Conservatives under Frank Miller had a similar lead in polls before an election, but were reduced to a minority and forced out. A week is said to be a long time in politics and three years is long enough to change the world.
McGuinty was uncharacteristic in bragging he would wipe the floor with opponents, because his image is more of a skinny guy who talks a lot about caring and avoids fights.
Ontarians also have shown they like leaders who appear modest. Even Harris, the last dominating premier, who sneered at demonstrators “I don’t do demos,” never boasted he would win in a walk.
New Democrat Bob Rae, when he surprisingly won enough votes to be premier, said modestly he felt as if he should demand a recount.
Peterson boasted he raised the Ontario Liberal Party from the dead, after it had been 42 years out of government, but this was more an internal issue in the party and not a boast of what he would do to others. When Peterson was defeated, he also accepted the whole blame, saying he lost “because of sickness — voters became sick of me.”
Conservative William Davis, the longest-serving premier in recent decades, boasted only once, when he regained his majority after two unsuccessful tries and paraded around a victory stage and explained “when you’ve got it, flaunt it,” a catchphrase of the times.
John Robarts similarly preserved a modest front, saying in a dispute over whether an Ontario leader should be called prime minister or premier, “call me prime minister or premier or John, if you want — that’s my name.”
McGuinty may have boasted because he wanted to impress he is winning over the public to counter complaints by some of his MPPs he drafts policy without consulting them and listens more to unelected advisers.
He will have difficulty establishing he takes time to get things right, because he had to abandon a plan to abolish reading the Lord’s Prayer at legislature sessions and his surprise introduction of a new statutory holiday, Family Day, produced chaos.
His declaration he will lead the Liberals next election also is meaningless, because every premier who retired has solemnly assured he has no intention of stepping down until the moment he announced his departure. Leaders never want to be handicapped as lame ducks. This does not mean McGuinty will not run again, but simply that a premier’s word on whether he will run cannot be relied on.
Eric Dowd is a veteran member of the Queen’s Park press gallery.
