Beard power: It's a long way to Election Day

I'm just going to throw this out there: I'm puzzled by the rising popularity of NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair.

I know, I know ... it’s still early goings in this 11-week federal election and all kinds of craziness can happen over the course of a campaign (Sudbury byelection scandal anyone?), but I can’t recall a time when an NDP leader enjoyed more widespread support than Mulcair is enjoying right now.

Has his marvellously hirsute face earned the esteem of all those beard-happy Millennials we see wandering the city like urban lumberjacks? Have his dogged criticisms of Stephen Harper and Justin Trudeau endeared him to more seasoned voters? How do we account for this NDP phenomenon?

It seems to have come out of left field. Maybe Rachel Notley’s stunning win in Alberta made the rest of Canada think differently about the NDP. Maybe after eight years of Harper and given the choice of voting for Trudeau, people see Mulcair as the safer alternative. Maybe it’s the beard.

I really don’t think anyone can provide a clear answer as to why Mulcair is so popular. But he is. The latest polls found two-thirds of Canadians see him the viable alternative to Harper. In Ontario, a province a party must win to win the election, the NDP is neck-and-neck with the Conservatives, while the Liberals are comfortably in third.

In Ontario, folks, the province that’s still mad at the NDP nearly 20 years after Bob Rae left office.

Frankly, I’m not sure what it is exactly that Mulcair has done that accounts for this sudden surge in popularity. It does make me question whether it can be sustained though. Something that came on so quickly can vanish just as fast.

I wonder if strategists for Harper and Trudeau have sat their candidate down for a frank discussion about growing a beard.

For all the attacks on his youth and inexperience by the opposition, Trudeau continues to lag behind in the polls. The popularity he enjoyed a year or two ago hasn't vanished so much as it has slumped. It's like his team has struggled to craft an image for him beyond the hair and the smile, and this has presented a mixed message to Canadians.

Trudeau supports reform of marijuana laws, but backs anti-terrorism legislation that gives more power to police and security agencies. He's given Liberal senators leave to vote with their conscience, not with their party, but demands his MPs vote pro-choice on abortion should the need arise.

I think voters want to like Trudeau, but can’t bring themselves to throw their support behind his boyish good looks just yet. Will he be prime minister one day? I'm pretty sure he will, but I think he needs at least four more years of political growth and a few dramatic crows' feet around his eyes before enough Canadians stop seeing as him as “Trudeau’s kid” and start seeing him as “Trudeau.”

Harper may have outworn his welcome, but I don’t think so. This is an 11-week campaign, and it’s far too early to write off a politician of the prime minister’s skill. The Conservatives may be sluggish in the polls now, but it's a long way to Election Day, and Harper is nothing if not determined to hold onto his seat in the PMO.

He's left Mulcair alone for the most part, choosing instead to attacks Trudeau’s youth and inexperience. That could change if Mulcair's popularity continues. When it comes to his record, Harper has done some good things, particularly in navigating the country’s economy through some tough global storms. That’s nothing to shake a stick at.

But he’s also not been a friend to scientists or journalists, has taken an unjustifiable tough-on-crime stance even as the crime rate continues to drop, and hasn’t done a lot to battle climate change or protect the environment.

That being said, Harper isn’t hated. His approval rating is still above 30 per cent (Ekos, July 31), even if that percentage puts him in last place behind Mulcair, May, Gilles Duceppe and Trudeau.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Harper holds onto power in a minority government. I’m not making a prediction; I’m just saying it wouldn’t blow me away if he were to win. As I said, there’s still a long way to go.

A note on Elizabeth May: It appears she’s recovered from her disjointed and awkward Press Gallery dinner speech back on May 9. The Green Party leader’s performance during the debate was strong. Canadians might not be ready to vote Green en masse anytime soon, but if May can stick around, avoid gaffes like the Press Gallery dinner, and provide sober and thoughtful criticism of the sitting government and the opposition parties, the Greens will benefit.

Criticism alone isn’t enough to become a political force, though. If May can combine criticism with workable policy ideas, more Canadians will begin to see her party as a viable alternative.

For many people, though, I think the Green Party still has a patina of hippy-ness about them. Let’s face it, it’s hard to get elected if people don’t take you seriously. And that’s the Green Party’s big problem right now.

Anyway, that’s enough from me for now. There’s a long way to go in this campaign. After the puzzling spike in Mulcair's popularity, I hope you’re as excited as I am to see what happens next.

I'm kind of hoping someone decides to grow a beard.

Mark Gentili is the managing editor of Northern Life and NorthernLife.ca.